Overview
Expectancy shows edge per trade
Expectancy tells you the average result you can expect per trade over time. It combines win rate with average win and loss size to estimate whether your strategy has positive edge.
to visualize how win rate and payoff must balance, and check the sensitivity grid to see how small changes impact edge.
Related: Position Size , R-Multiple , Risk of Ruin , Drawdown Recovery .
Edge per trade
Quantify average outcome per trade in dollars or R.
Break-even math
Find the win rate you need for your payoff ratio.
Sensitivity check
Test how edge shifts when win rate or payoff changes.
Calculator
Trading expectancy
Auto-updates as you type. Choose dollar or R expectancy.
Outputs
Expectancy per trade
$0
Expectancy per 100 trades
$0
Break-even win rate
0%
Break-even avg win
$0
Avg win needed to break even at the current win rate.
Loss rate
0%
How it works
Example expectancy calculation
Expectancy blends win rate with average win and loss size. A strategy can have a lower win rate but still be profitable if the average win is larger than the average loss.
Worked example
Win rate 45%, average win $240, average loss $150.
Expectancy = (0.45 * 240) - (0.55 * 150) = +$25.50 per trade.
Break-even curve
The curve shows the payoff ratio (W/L) required to break even at each win rate.
Dot shows your current win rate and payoff ratio.
Sensitivity grid
Expectancy sensitivity
3x3 grid around your inputs. Small changes can flip edge.
Related tools
More risk and performance tools
FAQ
Expectancy FAQs
What is trading expectancy?
Expectancy is the average profit or loss you can expect per trade over time. It combines win rate with average win and loss size to estimate edge.
What is the expectancy formula?
Expectancy = (Win% * Avg Win) - (Loss% * Avg Loss). You can calculate it in dollars or R to compare strategies on the same scale.
Can a high win rate still lose money?
Yes. If average losses are larger than average wins, a high win rate can still produce negative expectancy. Payoff ratio matters as much as win rate.
What is R-multiple expectancy?
R-multiple expectancy measures edge in units of risk (R). It helps compare strategies with different position sizes because results are normalized.
How big should my sample size be?
Expectancy is a statistical estimate and improves with sample size. More trades reduce noise and make the estimate more stable, but it is never a guarantee.
Disclaimer
Educational tool only. Expectancy is a statistical estimate based on your inputs and sample data, not a guarantee of future results.