Alphaex Capital Market Edge
The Week Ahead
High impact data sets released this week that can easily dictate short term makret movements from the EU and US.
The overal market theme sees the global economy continuing to weaken and the prospects of a global recession rising. With the data this week, continued weakness will contribute to the signals towards the recession and would be a good opportunity to look at Gold; we will be producing more analysis on Gold & Bitcoin in the comming weeks.
Top 11 Assets Performances Last Week:
Markets In Focus
- EU Consumer Confidence Flash
- EU – GER Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash
- EUR Ifo Business Climate
- EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision
- EUR ECB Press Conference
- USD Durable Goods Orders MoM
- GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv
Charts In Focus
The Week Ahead: EUR/USD
This week will be fun to watch EURUSD, we have some important EUR data which is expected to show continuation in a weakening EU economy, in addition the ECB on Wednesday will play a key part whether or not if they will raise interest rates.
Thrown in with GDP data from the US (expected to be lower), we have a right tussel for direction fundamentally – although, the US dollar is strengthening across the board.
Looking at technicals we can see a solid reaction to the 0.382 level; which coincidently provides resistance and has retraced lower.
Scenario A is we’d expect continued strengthening in USD and therefore EURUSD falling lower; if it breaks 100% level and Structure low 1 – then there should be a signficiant enough push towards the second Structure Low – which is also the 1.272 level of the Fib.
Scenario B is that the EUR data could be more positive than expected, and looking to trade above the 0.382 level. Should that happen, we can expect a move higher to the 0.62 level.
The Week Ahead: S&P 500
The S&P 500 has seen a strong upward move over the past few weeks, that has rounded off recently.
Technically speaking, it broker May’s high and continued to trade towards the 1.272 Fib level. In addition to this we can see the market pulled away from it’s recent mean price, touching and breaking the lower regression band. This puts us in two scenarios:
Either the market will continue to be boyed from the Fed Interest Rate cut speculation last and reverse back towards the mean & 1.272 fib level; if this happens and it breaks the fib level, then it is possible to continue to the 1.68 level. Price will be effected by Company Earnings releases and GDP data throughout the week. A positive tone will be able to drive the S&P 500 higher.
Scenerio B could be that the price continues to pull away from the mean towards the 100% retracement level – again, earnings and GDP data could help push the price lower. If we see a poor data week – we could see the price break the upward move and break down past the 100% level.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation, buy/sell signal, or advice in any format.