Alphaex Capital Market Edge
The Week Ahead
Markets In Focus
- UK company earnings with week reporting their figures
- US GDP
- China PMI
- UK Manufacturing PMI
- Vote on UK’s Withdrawal Agreement
- Italy’s budget
Charts In Focus
The Week Ahead: EUR/USD
The EURUSD has been trading between a range of 1.1250 and 1.1470, with only a couple of breakout attempts.
Scenario A: On the 4 Hr chart we can see momentum looks to return downwards as the 0.382 level has held and the price is now trading below it. In addition, we see that price has traded below its parabolic level and the 20/50 HMA has crossed to the downside. All factors of a change in near-term direction. We see the market moving lower to 1.1300 as it’s the nearest level then it could continue to fall lower from the retracement to 1.1250. Especially if it breaks the recent higher low of 1.1316.
Scenario B: If the reversal is not strong enough, or data comes out to suggest Euro strength, then opportunities lie from the price breaking 1.1375. The factors include that the market structure remains intact – higher highs and lower highs – price is still strong enough to continue higher and price could break the parabolic level which could potentially form around 1.1375.
The Week Ahead: XAU/USD
Gold has been on a strong run this year.
Right now, there was a shooting star candlestick at 2019’s high. This indicates a shift in momentum that could pull the price lower. We see that it is currently trading above its trends mean level, which again signals a change in direction.
Scenario A: A move lower. We expect the market to potentially continue to fall lower towards it’s mean, which we have $1,311.90 as an area that may support the price. Should the market’s selling pressure continue then we should see gold fall as low ~$1,280.
Scenario B: A retracement higher. The recent price action could all be a small reversal and could allow an opportunity to buy into the larger overall bullish trend of 2019. IF the price continues to rise and trades above $1,329 then we could see the markets move higher towards the $1,355 level.
The Week Ahead: WTI Oil
Oil is currently trading between the 0.382 and 0.618 fib levels which indicates a chance of a reversal back lower.
Scenario A: Oil continues with it’s run, as the 20 Day HMA has crossed above the 50 Day HMA which shows bullish momentum. With this momentum, we could see the market rise towards the $63.83 level. Price is also trading above it’s mean in the regression channel tool. If this price is reached and continues further then we have an indication that the buyers are in full control and expect further resistance around the $64.33 level.
Scenario B: We see oil’s retracement levels kick in between the 0.382 and 0.618. If the market turns and trades lower than the 0.382 level ($55.59) then this signals a retracement targeting back to the 2018 year lows of $42.34. We have near term support at $50.44 should price pierce the 0.382 level.
The Week Ahead: S&P 500
Continuing on from last weeks analysis, the levels still hold.
Scenario A: We’ve seen a couple of hammer candlestick formations form on our temporary support level last week and the price reacted trading higher. The price is currently trading below the mean, which is positive as price wants to drift back towards it. We could see the market move to the 2800 level if price pierces this level and closes – we could see the market trade higher, upwards to 2900 level. If price regains this level we could see it continue to 2924 which is the 1.212 extension level highlighted and coincides with the largest swing high since October 2018.
Scenario B: Depending on factors other than price action and technical analysis, the price could reverse at the 2800 level, we would then be watching if the price breaks our support level (red line). If the price does reverse as such, we could see it reach the 0.612 level (2717).
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation, buy/sell signal, or advice in any format.