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Alphaex Capital Market Edge

The Week Ahead

Markets In Focus

  • UK PMI
  • China PMI
  • US Non-Farm Payroll

Charts In Focus

The Week Ahead: EUR/USD

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The 0.618 retracement level held and the price broke the Parabolic SAR levels as discussed last week.

The market played out with Scenario A and continued to sell off towards the 1.3000 level. This week we have NFP data released which will give the EURUSD a push.

Scenario A: Continued strength in the USD could see the market move lower than 1.3000 and head towards to the structure low of 1.1235. For it to get to that level, it must also trade lower than it’s support level at 1.1250 which has been held there since November 2018. Should it continue further, then we are looking at the 1.1188 and 1.1129 levels.

Scenario B: Should momentum change and Euro strengthens then we could see two key support areas the lower 0.618 retracement level and the 1.1250 support. If the market moves lower then we will look out for a retracement from these areas. Should Scenario B playout then it is reasonable to predict that price levels of 1.1340 would be tested as a resistance level.

The Week Ahead: Bitcoin/USD

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Scenario A: The move lower looks more favourable at this level as the market is between 0.382 and 0.618 retracement levels for a while now. The price action is confirmed by breaking the Parabolic and the HMA crossover to the downside. Should the market break the 0.618 level, we could see Bitcoin go to 3578 and potentially 3472.

READ  Daily Market Brief [01/08/2018]
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Scenario B: Price rejects 0.618 and breaks through the 0.382 trading back to the 4000 level.

The Week Ahead: S&P 500

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Last week we discussed the possibility of the market moving towards and breaking the 2800 level which would confirm a 100% retracement back from the recent move lower.

Scenario A: The Linear Regression is still showing a positive moving mean, which is encouraging for the SPX. In Scenario A, we could see the market continue to move towards it’s mean, which also suggests a break above the 2815 level. This is significant because the previous two highers were created at this level. Should it break, this shows that the market’s buyers are still in control. With the NFP this Friday, plus other economic factors, we could see a positive run for the SPX this week. This will be reaffirmed by the break to the upside of the Parabolic levels too.

Scenario B: Market is held tightly at the 2815 level and retraces downwards again towards 2740, 2720. Should this happen it would mean it’s broken out of the Linear Regression channel and broker the Parabolic levels. Should the HMAs crossover to the downside, this too encourages the Scenario B to hit the mentioned levels.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation, buy/sell signal, or advice in any format.