ALPHAEX INSIDER: ISSUE #1: Waiting On Buffett...
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Waiting On Buffett, China Dropping, GBP Benefiting?

Issue #1

Welcome to the first issue of the Alphaex Insider.

Each week, we’ll craft a newsletter that promises to deliver market insights and actionable information for you to digest over the weekend and prime yourself for the upcoming trading week.

This week, we get to share the insights of a falling economy: China.

China’s March data reveals that Retail Sales were a huge blow, vs. what was expected.

Industrial Production -1.1% y/y expected -6.2%
industrial production YTD 8.4% y/y expected -10.0%, prior was -13.5%
Fixed Assets (excluding rural) YTD -16.1% y/y, expected -15%, prior was -24.5%
Retail Sales -15.8% y/y, expected -10.0%
Retail Sales YTD -19.0% y/y, expected -12.5%, prior was -20.5%

What does this mean to you?

Well, China was hit by the COVID-19 virus before anyone else 1 or two months in advanced. The above figures can give some kind of indication of how the rest of the world may suffer in 1 or two months time.

Keep an eye out on this data, because there will be some serious trading opportunities ahead.

INSIDE FIVE


1. China GDP Falls First Time Since 1992

Shouldn’t be a huge surprise considering what’s been going on in the world, but still – this is big news. Reported at 6.8% drop, vs. 6.5% – the bigger picture here is that with the lockdown China doesn’t have anyone to sell to yet. Keep an eye on Oil.

2. European equity close: Solid gains turn the week green

UK FTSE 100 +1.6%
German DAX +2.6%
Italy MIB -2.2%
French CAC +1.0%
Spain IBEX -1.2%

3. GBP/USD: Healing process for Boris and the pound

GBP/USD has hit the highest in a month amid PM Boris Johnson’s discharge from hospital and US dollar weakness.

4. Coronavirus: US dollar could benefit from a prolonged recovery

US and China will want to get their economies moving as quickly as possible and that will only be possible if each side cooperates in fulfilling the agreement. There should be no new disputes on the trade front.

5. Berkshire Hathaway top exec says it’s not being aggressive: “Everybody’s just frozen”

Charlie Munger spoke to the Wall Street Journal The world is awaiting word from Warren Buffett about what Berkshire Hathaway is doing. A buying signal from the world’s greatest investor would go a long way.


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All the best and have a nice weekend,
The Alphaex Team

Disclaimer: No financial advice is given in the commentary above. All information is for information and educational purposes only.