Does Technical Analysis Work?

Share on:

Technical analysis is the study of the price action of an asset, such as the value of a share or the value of a forex pair.

The objective is to predict where assets will go based on price action and previous behaviour.

Technical analysis is one of the most widely used forms of study for currency trading in the forex market.

This article will take you through the history of technical analysis, explain how it works and explore some of the ways that you can apply it to your investing.

So, Does Technical Analysis Work?

Technicals are a tried and tested method of investing that has been around for decades.

It relies on historical movements and market patterns to make predictions about the future.

While there are many different types of studies, one of the most widely used is called Elliott wave theory.

Elliott wave theory suggests that waves move in cycles and that the direction and speed of these waves can be determined.

Traders use these waves to predict future trends and potential market bottoms and tops.

Many experienced forex traders say that if it wasn’t for technical analysis, the markets would be much less efficient.

There’s no doubt that the markets have a certain level of unpredictability, which is why using technical analysis as a tool makes sense.

But technical analysis isn’t all about predicting the future.

While the markets certainly do behave in predictable ways, that doesn’t mean that technical analysis can’t be used to understand what’s happening now.

Technical analysis allows you to spot patterns and trends within the market and, as a result, improve your chances of making a profitable investment.

There’s no doubt that technical analysis can help you to make informed decisions – but you need to be careful. There’s no substitute for a thorough knowledge of fundamental and technical analysis and how they work together.

Is Technical Analysis Reliable?

As a tool, technical analysis can be extremely useful.

This tool can be used to identify trends and patterns within the market and, therefore, enable traders to predict the future direction of the asset.

It can also be used to evaluate the volatility of a market and help traders gauge when a market is moving strongly or weakly.

However, despite the positive results achieved using technical analysis, it isn’t a fail-proof method and traders should be aware of potential problems.

As with any trading discipline, technical analysis can be used effectively to analyse movement, but there are a few important things to bear in mind before you start applying this type of analysis.

First, a chartist’s primary goal is to predict the future, and the best way to do this is to study past asset movements.

However, the only information available at the beginning of a new trend is that it has begun.

When looking at the longer-term future, a trader cannot rely on a chartist’s predictions, because that requires extrapolating from present conditions into the unknown.

Instead, the best approach is to identify the trend in question and wait until it comes to an end.

Second, it is important to remember that technical analysis is not a prediction tool – it is a tool to give you an indication of the future.

It can be very effective but does not give any guarantee of success.

For this reason, it should never be considered a ‘get rich quick’ strategy, but a discipline that helps you develop skills and techniques to make informed investing decisions.

Third, remember that technical analysis is not a perfect science.

It is a tool, and the trader has to interpret what the data is telling him, and then make the best possible decision to execute his trade.

It is not about being right or wrong; it is about being good at making a judgment call about an investment.

Does Technical Analysis Work for Trading

Which Technical Analysis Works Best? – Price Action vs Trading Indicators

Price action trading is the most common method of trading forex today.

Traders are usually looking to take action based on chart patterns that they’ve identified or to follow a trend that they believe will continue.

Traders will then attempt to execute against the trend and use price action to enter trades, exiting trades when they’re profitable and waiting to enter trades when the market reaches an attractive level.

This is referred to as ‘trend following’ – it’s the most popular way of trading forex, as it allows traders to follow market movements that they believe will continue without having to understand how the market works.

If you’d prefer to do more research into the market, there are several different types of technical analysis.

They include moving averages, MACD, RSI, Stochastics, ATR, Bollinger Bands and Ichimoku Clouds.

Does Technical Analysis Work in Forex

Trading with technical analysis is fairly straightforward.

You’d be hard-pressed to find a system that can consistently produce profits without using some type of technical analysis, but there are different approaches.

Most systems focus on price action and attempt to exploit trends that develop within the market.

These types of systems can be very profitable and provide a number of benefits.

The main benefit of this approach is that you are looking for opportunities within the market to buy and sell based on what the market is doing – you are not trying to predict what the market will do in the future.

As a result, these systems are less subject to market manipulation.

Other systems, though, take an entirely different approach.

Rather than looking for market opportunities and trying to exploit them, they focus on technical analysis to identify patterns that have existed within the market in the past.

Once the patterns are identified, the systems try to anticipate these future patterns and profit from them when they arise.

Does Technical Analysis Work in Crypto

One could argue that technical analysis works in all markets, but perhaps not in crypto.

Unlike traditional markets, the value of crypto assets fluctuates wildly based on the latest news.

So, how can we apply technical analysis to crypto?

In a nutshell, we can use a lot of the same techniques we do in traditional markets. One thing to bear in mind is that the charts in crypto are different.

Because crypto trades are peer-to-peer, the charts show the movement of digital coins between one account and another, rather than the value of an underlying asset.

Crypto is also decentralized, meaning that no one single exchange controls the market. There are many different ways to trade in crypto, and the crypto trading community is growing rapidly.

These factors can make cryptocurrency charts confusing to follow, and even more difficult to interpret.

As with forex, technical analysis can be applied to cryptocurrencies.

However, because the crypto markets are more volatile, there are more variables and factors involved in cryptocurrency trading.

While traditional trading indicators may not be suitable for cryptocurrency trading, some indicators that are specific to cryptocurrencies have been developed.

These include:

Candlestick Patterns Analysis

A candlestick is a representation of a trading range on a chart.

The two bars that make up the candlestick represent the highest and lowest price points of a trading range.

The open bar represents the level when the market begins trading, and the close bar represents the price when the market closes.

Moving Average

A moving average is a simple average that is calculated across a set time period, which makes it a type of trend line.

Moving averages can be useful to identify peaks and troughs, and can also be used to identify certain trends.

Trend Direction

One of the easiest ways to identify a trend is to identify if prices are trending up or down.

Traders can use the moving average to determine whether the prices are rising or falling.

Volatility Index

The volatility index (VIX) is an indicator that represents the expected volatility of the markets.

This measure is used to identify areas of excessive market volatility.

Does Technical Analysis Work in Stock Market

Traders use these tools to predict future price movements of stocks.

Technical analysts look at historical data to help determine whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued.

For example, if a stock is below its 200-day moving average, the analyst might conclude that the stock is overvalued because the price is below the price at which it was traded on previous trading days.

The analyst might also notice a trend in the recent price movement, and note that the stock has been moving up since the beginning of the year.

If the analyst concludes that the stock is overvalued, he or she might suggest that the stock is a good candidate to short.

Shorting stocks means that the analyst agrees that the stock is worth less than what it’s currently selling for.

Technical analysis is based on the premise that there is no free lunch and that all market participants act rationally and pursue self-interest.

But can the same principles be applied in stock markets?

Technical analysis is based on the idea that history can predict future directions.

And if you’re using a time frame of several months, you might think that the history of the stock market is much more extensive and reliable than that of the currency market.

However, the history of the stock market is subject to the same market forces as the forex market.

And there are certain things that can affect the overall trend.

For example, the news cycle plays a big role in the stock market because it provides investors with information on upcoming corporate announcements and changes in financial markets.

When news reaches the public, traders react by bidding or offering prices in an attempt to take advantage of that news or to hedge against it.

The trading activity that results can create a buying or selling pressure, which affects the value.

If the news comes out in the same direction as the prior trend, the value will rise. And if it goes in the opposite direction, the value will fall.

Conclusion

So does technical analysis work?

The answer depends on your time frame and trading strategies.

Yes, technical analysis works in all time frames, however, it is not a panacea to success.

Technical analysis alone will not determine whether a trade is profitable, but it will definitely be beneficial to the overall success of a trader.

Want to learn more about technical analysis and its impact on your trading? Check out the articles below:

Related Articles: